Skip to content
Monday 16 April 2018, 21:30 Opel Arena Full time
48% 27% 25%
Home win
47.9%
Draw
26.9%
Away win
25.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
FSV Mainz 05 47.9% 2.09
Draw 26.9% 3.72
SC Freiburg 25.2% 3.97

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.9% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.1% 12.34
Over 1.5 74.1% 1.35
Under 1.5 25.9% 3.86
Over 2.5 48.3% 2.07
Under 2.5 51.7% 1.94
Over 3.5 26.5% 3.77
Under 3.5 73.5% 1.36
Over 4.5 12.4% 8.09
Under 4.5 87.6% 1.14

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 52.1% 1.92
No 47.9% 2.09

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
FSV Mainz 05 / Draw 74.8% 1.34
FSV Mainz 05 / SC Freiburg 73.1% 1.37
Draw / SC Freiburg 52.1% 1.92

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.1
7.1
4.1
1.5
0.4
0.1
1
10.7
12.8
6.4
2.3
0.6
0.1
2
8.8
9.4
5.0
1.7
0.5
0.1
3
4.6
4.8
2.6
0.9
0.2
0.1
4
1.8
1.9
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.5
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: FSV Mainz 05 goals. Columns: SC Freiburg goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.