Saturday 28 October 2017, 19:30
Estadio Wanda Metropolitano
Full time
53%
30%
18%
Home win
52.8%
Draw
29.6%
Away win
17.6%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Draw | 29.6% | 3.38 | — | — |
| Villarreal | 17.6% | 5.69 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 86.0% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 14.0% | 7.16 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 39.3% | 2.54 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 32.9% | 3.04 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 14.7% | 6.82 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 85.3% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 5.5% | 18.34 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 94.5% | 1.06 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 36.8% | 2.72 | — | — |
| No | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid / Draw | 82.4% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Atletico Madrid / Villarreal | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Draw / Villarreal | 47.2% | 2.12 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
14.0
|
8.1
|
2.9
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
17.3
|
12.7
|
4.0
|
0.9
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
12.2
|
8.1
|
2.7
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
5.5
|
3.7
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
1.9
|
1.2
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.5
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
May 2026
Villarreal
5-1
Atletico Madrid
Sep 2025
Atletico Madrid
2-0
Villarreal
Jan 2025
Atletico Madrid
1-1
Villarreal
Aug 2024
Villarreal
2-2
Atletico Madrid
Apr 2024
Villarreal
1-2
Atletico Madrid
Nov 2023
Atletico Madrid
3-1
Villarreal
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.