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Sunday 8 April 2018, 21:45 San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza Full time
1–1
HT 0–0
60% 24% 16%
Home win
59.7%
Draw
23.9%
Away win
16.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan 59.7% 1.68
Draw 23.9% 4.19
Sassuolo 16.4% 6.09

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.4% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.6% 13.16
Over 1.5 75.1% 1.33
Under 1.5 24.9% 4.02
Over 2.5 49.8% 2.01
Under 2.5 50.2% 1.99
Over 3.5 27.8% 3.59
Under 3.5 72.2% 1.39
Over 4.5 13.2% 7.58
Under 4.5 86.8% 1.15

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 48.5% 2.06
No 51.5% 1.94

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan / Draw 83.6% 1.20
AC Milan / Sassuolo 76.1% 1.31
Draw / Sassuolo 40.3% 2.48

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.6
5.3
2.5
0.7
0.1
0.0
1
12.0
11.4
4.5
1.3
0.3
0.0
2
11.5
9.7
4.1
1.2
0.2
0.0
3
7.0
5.9
2.5
0.7
0.2
0.0
4
3.2
2.7
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
1.2
1.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Sassuolo goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.