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Sunday 9 April 2017, 16:00 San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza Full time
4–0
HT 3–0
71% 19% 10%
Home win
71.2%
Draw
19.1%
Away win
9.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan 71.2% 1.40
Draw 19.1% 5.23
Palermo 9.6% 10.40

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.5% 1.07
Under 0.5 6.5% 15.42
Over 1.5 77.7% 1.29
Under 1.5 22.3% 4.49
Over 2.5 53.5% 1.87
Under 2.5 46.5% 2.15
Over 3.5 31.2% 3.20
Under 3.5 68.8% 1.45
Over 4.5 15.5% 6.44
Under 4.5 84.5% 1.18

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 43.4% 2.30
No 56.6% 1.77

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan / Draw 90.4% 1.11
AC Milan / Palermo 80.9% 1.24
Draw / Palermo 28.8% 3.48

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.5
3.5
1.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
1
12.3
9.1
2.8
0.6
0.1
0.0
2
13.8
9.2
3.1
0.7
0.1
0.0
3
9.9
6.6
2.2
0.5
0.1
0.0
4
5.4
3.6
1.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
5
2.3
1.5
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Palermo goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.