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Friday 4 May 2018, 22:00 Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán Full time
44% 24% 32%
Home win
44.5%
Draw
23.5%
Away win
32.0%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sevilla 44.5% 2.25
Draw 23.5% 4.25
Real Sociedad 32.0% 3.13

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.1% 1.04
Under 0.5 3.9% 25.68
Over 1.5 85.9% 1.16
Under 1.5 14.1% 7.11
Over 2.5 66.1% 1.51
Under 2.5 33.9% 2.95
Over 3.5 44.3% 2.26
Under 3.5 55.7% 1.79
Over 4.5 25.7% 3.90
Under 4.5 74.3% 1.35

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 67.0% 1.49
No 33.0% 3.03

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sevilla / Draw 68.0% 1.47
Sevilla / Real Sociedad 76.5% 1.31
Draw / Real Sociedad 55.5% 1.80

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.9
4.6
4.0
2.1
0.8
0.2
1
5.6
10.1
7.4
3.8
1.5
0.5
2
5.7
8.9
6.9
3.6
1.4
0.4
3
3.5
5.5
4.2
2.2
0.9
0.3
4
1.6
2.5
2.0
1.0
0.4
0.1
5
0.6
0.9
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.0
Rows: Sevilla goals. Columns: Real Sociedad goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.