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Friday 25 August 2017, 21:15 Anoeta Full time
34% 29% 37%
Home win
33.5%
Draw
29.2%
Away win
37.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Sociedad 33.5% 2.98
Draw 29.2% 3.42
Villarreal 37.2% 2.69

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 90.1% 1.11
Under 0.5 9.9% 10.10
Over 1.5 69.8% 1.43
Under 1.5 30.2% 3.32
Over 2.5 42.9% 2.33
Under 2.5 57.1% 1.75
Over 3.5 22.0% 4.54
Under 3.5 78.0% 1.28
Over 4.5 9.5% 10.50
Under 4.5 90.5% 1.11

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 49.5% 2.02
No 50.5% 1.98

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Sociedad / Draw 62.8% 1.59
Real Sociedad / Villarreal 70.8% 1.41
Draw / Villarreal 66.5% 1.50

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.9
10.5
7.0
2.9
0.9
0.2
1
9.8
13.8
8.1
3.3
1.0
0.3
2
6.1
7.6
4.7
1.9
0.6
0.1
3
2.4
2.9
1.8
0.7
0.2
0.1
4
0.7
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Real Sociedad goals. Columns: Villarreal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.