Skip to content
Sunday 7 October 2018, 22:00 Parc des Princes Full time
70% 17% 13%
Home win
69.8%
Draw
17.1%
Away win
13.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Paris Saint Germain 69.8% 1.43
Draw 17.1% 5.86
Lyon 13.1% 7.62

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 97.2% 1.03
Under 0.5 2.8% 35.60
Over 1.5 89.1% 1.12
Under 1.5 10.9% 9.16
Over 2.5 72.0% 1.39
Under 2.5 28.0% 3.57
Over 3.5 51.3% 1.95
Under 3.5 48.7% 2.05
Over 4.5 31.9% 3.14
Under 4.5 68.1% 1.47

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 62.2% 1.61
No 37.8% 2.65

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Paris Saint Germain / Draw 86.9% 1.15
Paris Saint Germain / Lyon 82.9% 1.21
Draw / Lyon 30.2% 3.31

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.8
2.2
1.4
0.5
0.1
0.0
1
5.9
7.3
3.8
1.4
0.4
0.1
2
8.3
9.1
5.0
1.8
0.5
0.1
3
7.3
8.0
4.4
1.6
0.4
0.1
4
4.8
5.3
2.9
1.1
0.3
0.1
5
2.5
2.8
1.5
0.6
0.2
0.0
Rows: Paris Saint Germain goals. Columns: Lyon goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.