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Saturday 29 September 2012, 17:15 Stadio Néas Smírnis Full time
34% 33% 32%
Home win
34.4%
Draw
33.2%
Away win
32.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Panionios 34.4% 2.90
Draw 33.2% 3.01
AEK Athens FC 32.4% 3.09

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 84.6% 1.18
Under 0.5 15.4% 6.50
Over 1.5 58.2% 1.72
Under 1.5 41.8% 2.39
Over 2.5 30.3% 3.30
Under 2.5 69.7% 1.44
Over 3.5 13.0% 7.71
Under 3.5 87.0% 1.15
Over 4.5 4.6% 21.64
Under 4.5 95.4% 1.05

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 39.0% 2.56
No 61.0% 1.64

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Panionios / Draw 67.6% 1.48
Panionios / AEK Athens FC 66.8% 1.50
Draw / AEK Athens FC 65.6% 1.53

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
15.4
12.9
6.5
2.0
0.5
0.1
1
13.5
14.3
6.4
2.0
0.5
0.1
2
7.0
6.6
3.1
1.0
0.2
0.0
3
2.3
2.2
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
4
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Panionios goals. Columns: AEK Athens FC goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.