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Saturday 3 March 2018, 21:45 Stadio San Paolo Full time
2–4
HT 1–2
53% 25% 22%
Home win
52.7%
Draw
25.3%
Away win
22.0%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Napoli 52.7% 1.90
Draw 25.3% 3.95
AS Roma 22.0% 4.54

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.8% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.2% 13.95
Over 1.5 76.5% 1.31
Under 1.5 23.5% 4.25
Over 2.5 51.5% 1.94
Under 2.5 48.5% 2.06
Over 3.5 29.4% 3.40
Under 3.5 70.6% 1.42
Over 4.5 14.2% 7.02
Under 4.5 85.8% 1.17

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 53.2% 1.88
No 46.8% 2.14

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Napoli / Draw 78.0% 1.28
Napoli / AS Roma 74.7% 1.34
Draw / AS Roma 47.3% 2.11

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.2
6.0
3.4
1.2
0.3
0.1
1
10.4
12.1
5.8
2.0
0.5
0.1
2
9.5
9.7
5.0
1.7
0.4
0.1
3
5.4
5.5
2.8
1.0
0.3
0.1
4
2.3
2.4
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
0.8
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Napoli goals. Columns: AS Roma goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.