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Friday 17 March 2017, 20:00 Stade Saint-Symphorien Full time
1–0
HT 0–0
42% 30% 28%
Home win
42.3%
Draw
29.6%
Away win
28.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Metz 42.3% 2.36
Draw 29.6% 3.38
Bastia 28.1% 3.55

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 89.2% 1.12
Under 0.5 10.8% 9.23
Over 1.5 67.6% 1.48
Under 1.5 32.4% 3.09
Over 2.5 40.3% 2.48
Under 2.5 59.7% 1.68
Over 3.5 20.0% 5.00
Under 3.5 80.0% 1.25
Over 4.5 8.3% 11.98
Under 4.5 91.7% 1.09

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 46.8% 2.14
No 53.2% 1.88

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Metz / Draw 71.9% 1.39
Metz / Bastia 70.4% 1.42
Draw / Bastia 57.7% 1.73

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.8
9.3
5.1
1.7
0.4
0.1
1
12.2
13.8
6.6
2.2
0.6
0.1
2
8.4
8.4
4.2
1.4
0.4
0.1
3
3.6
3.6
1.8
0.6
0.2
0.0
4
1.2
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Metz goals. Columns: Bastia goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.