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Saturday 20 May 2017, 22:00 Orange Vélodrome Full time
1–0
HT 0–0
70% 21% 9%
Home win
69.9%
Draw
20.6%
Away win
9.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Marseille 69.9% 1.43
Draw 20.6% 4.85
Bastia 9.5% 10.58

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.8% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.2% 12.20
Over 1.5 73.2% 1.37
Under 1.5 26.8% 3.73
Over 2.5 47.4% 2.11
Under 2.5 52.6% 1.90
Over 3.5 25.7% 3.89
Under 3.5 74.3% 1.35
Over 4.5 11.8% 8.46
Under 4.5 88.2% 1.13

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 38.8% 2.58
No 61.2% 1.63

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Marseille / Draw 90.5% 1.10
Marseille / Bastia 79.4% 1.26
Draw / Bastia 30.1% 3.33

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.2
4.0
1.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
1
14.7
9.5
2.6
0.5
0.1
0.0
2
15.0
8.8
2.6
0.5
0.1
0.0
3
9.9
5.8
1.7
0.3
0.0
0.0
4
4.9
2.9
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
2.0
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Marseille goals. Columns: Bastia goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.