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Friday 13 October 2017, 21:45 Parc Olympique Lyonnais Full time
3–2
HT 2–2
30% 22% 48%
Home win
30.1%
Draw
21.7%
Away win
48.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lyon 30.1% 3.32
Draw 21.7% 4.61
Monaco 48.2% 2.07

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 97.3% 1.03
Under 0.5 2.7% 37.30
Over 1.5 89.9% 1.11
Under 1.5 10.1% 9.86
Over 2.5 73.3% 1.36
Under 2.5 26.7% 3.75
Over 3.5 52.9% 1.89
Under 3.5 47.1% 2.12
Over 4.5 33.5% 2.99
Under 4.5 66.5% 1.50

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 72.2% 1.39
No 27.8% 3.59

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lyon / Draw 51.8% 1.93
Lyon / Monaco 78.3% 1.28
Draw / Monaco 69.9% 1.43

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.7
4.2
5.0
3.6
1.9
0.8
1
3.2
8.4
8.5
6.0
3.2
1.4
2
3.1
6.6
7.1
5.0
2.7
1.2
3
1.7
3.7
4.0
2.8
1.5
0.6
4
0.7
1.6
1.7
1.2
0.6
0.3
5
0.2
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
Rows: Lyon goals. Columns: Monaco goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.