Saturday 28 April 2018, 21:00
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Full time
53%
26%
22%
Home win
52.8%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
21.5%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Draw | 25.7% | 3.90 | — | — |
| Metz | 21.5% | 4.64 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 92.3% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 7.7% | 12.99 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 24.9% | 4.01 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 49.6% | 2.02 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 27.7% | 3.61 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 13.1% | 7.64 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 86.9% | 1.15 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| No | 48.4% | 2.07 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille / Draw | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Lille / Metz | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Draw / Metz | 47.2% | 2.12 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
7.7
|
6.2
|
3.4
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
11.0
|
12.2
|
5.7
|
1.9
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
9.8
|
9.7
|
4.8
|
1.6
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
5.5
|
5.4
|
2.7
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
2.3
|
2.3
|
1.1
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.8
|
0.8
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2026
Metz
0-0
Lille
Oct 2025
Lille
6-1
Metz
Apr 2024
Metz
1-2
Lille
Dec 2023
Lille
2-0
Metz
Feb 2022
Lille
0-0
Metz
Aug 2021
Metz
3-3
Lille
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.