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Saturday 28 April 2018, 21:00 Stade Pierre-Mauroy Full time
3–1
HT 2–0
53% 26% 22%
Home win
52.8%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
21.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lille 52.8% 1.89
Draw 25.7% 3.90
Metz 21.5% 4.64

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.3% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.7% 12.99
Over 1.5 75.1% 1.33
Under 1.5 24.9% 4.01
Over 2.5 49.6% 2.02
Under 2.5 50.4% 1.98
Over 3.5 27.7% 3.61
Under 3.5 72.3% 1.38
Over 4.5 13.1% 7.64
Under 4.5 86.9% 1.15

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 51.6% 1.94
No 48.4% 2.07

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lille / Draw 78.5% 1.27
Lille / Metz 74.3% 1.35
Draw / Metz 47.2% 2.12

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.7
6.2
3.4
1.1
0.3
0.1
1
11.0
12.2
5.7
1.9
0.5
0.1
2
9.8
9.7
4.8
1.6
0.4
0.1
3
5.5
5.4
2.7
0.9
0.2
0.0
4
2.3
2.3
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
0.8
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Lille goals. Columns: Metz goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.