Saturday 6 May 2017, 21:00
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Full time
64%
22%
14%
Home win
64.1%
Draw
22.2%
Away win
13.8%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Draw | 22.2% | 4.51 | — | — |
| Metz | 13.8% | 7.25 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 92.9% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 7.1% | 14.18 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 23.6% | 4.25 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 48.4% | 2.07 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 29.5% | 3.39 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 14.3% | 6.99 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 85.7% | 1.17 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 47.4% | 2.11 | — | — |
| No | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille / Draw | 86.2% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Lille / Metz | 77.8% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Draw / Metz | 35.9% | 2.78 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
7.1
|
4.5
|
2.0
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
12.0
|
10.5
|
3.9
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
12.3
|
9.7
|
3.8
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
8.0
|
6.3
|
2.5
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
3.9
|
3.1
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
1.5
|
1.2
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2026
Metz
0-0
Lille
Oct 2025
Lille
6-1
Metz
Apr 2024
Metz
1-2
Lille
Dec 2023
Lille
2-0
Metz
Feb 2022
Lille
0-0
Metz
Aug 2021
Metz
3-3
Lille
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.