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Sunday 27 August 2017, 21:45 Stadio Artemio Franchi Full time
50% 25% 26%
Home win
49.7%
Draw
24.6%
Away win
25.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Fiorentina 49.7% 2.01
Draw 24.6% 4.07
Sampdoria 25.7% 3.89

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.4% 1.06
Under 0.5 5.6% 17.83
Over 1.5 80.8% 1.24
Under 1.5 19.2% 5.21
Over 2.5 57.8% 1.73
Under 2.5 42.2% 2.37
Over 3.5 35.4% 2.83
Under 3.5 64.6% 1.55
Over 4.5 18.5% 5.40
Under 4.5 81.5% 1.23

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 59.4% 1.68
No 40.6% 2.46

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Fiorentina / Draw 74.3% 1.35
Fiorentina / Sampdoria 75.4% 1.33
Draw / Sampdoria 50.3% 1.99

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.6
5.4
3.7
1.5
0.5
0.1
1
8.2
11.5
6.6
2.7
0.8
0.2
2
7.8
9.6
5.9
2.4
0.7
0.2
3
4.6
5.7
3.5
1.4
0.4
0.1
4
2.1
2.5
1.6
0.6
0.2
0.0
5
0.7
0.9
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
Rows: Fiorentina goals. Columns: Sampdoria goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.