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Sunday 26 August 2018, 19:00 Signal Iduna Park Full time
Borussia Dortmund
4–1
HT 3–1
RB Leipzig
55% 21% 24%
Home win
55.1%
Draw
21.2%
Away win
23.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Borussia Dortmund 55.1% 1.81 — —
Draw 21.2% 4.72 — —
RB Leipzig 23.7% 4.22 — —

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.9% 1.03 — —
Under 0.5 3.1% 32.37 — —
Over 1.5 88.4% 1.13 — —
Under 1.5 11.6% 8.64 — —
Over 2.5 70.6% 1.42 — —
Under 2.5 29.4% 3.40 — —
Over 3.5 49.6% 2.02 — —
Under 3.5 50.4% 1.98 — —
Over 4.5 30.3% 3.30 — —
Under 4.5 69.7% 1.44 — —

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 68.3% 1.46 — —
No 31.7% 3.15 — —

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Borussia Dortmund / Draw 76.3% 1.31 — —
Borussia Dortmund / RB Leipzig 78.8% 1.27 — —
Draw / RB Leipzig 44.9% 2.23 — —

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.1
3.2
2.6
1.3
0.4
0.1
1
5.3
8.7
5.9
2.8
1.0
0.3
2
6.4
9.2
6.5
3.1
1.1
0.3
3
4.8
6.8
4.8
2.3
0.8
0.2
4
2.7
3.8
2.7
1.3
0.5
0.1
5
1.2
1.7
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.1
Rows: Borussia Dortmund goals. Columns: RB Leipzig goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Borussia Dortmund
L W D L L
RB Leipzig
D L L W W

Head to head

Feb 2026 RB Leipzig 2-2 Borussia Dortmund Oct 2025 Borussia Dortmund 1-1 RB Leipzig Mar 2025 RB Leipzig 2-0 Borussia Dortmund Nov 2024 Borussia Dortmund 2-1 RB Leipzig Apr 2024 RB Leipzig 4-1 Borussia Dortmund Dec 2023 Borussia Dortmund 2-3 RB Leipzig

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.