Skip to content
Saturday 20 October 2018, 21:45 Camp Nou Full time
4–2
HT 2–0
76% 14% 10%
Home win
75.7%
Draw
14.5%
Away win
9.8%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona 75.7% 1.32
Draw 14.5% 6.90
Sevilla 9.8% 10.18

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 97.7% 1.02
Under 0.5 2.3% 43.29
Over 1.5 90.7% 1.10
Under 1.5 9.3% 10.72
Over 2.5 75.2% 1.33
Under 2.5 24.8% 4.03
Over 3.5 55.3% 1.81
Under 3.5 44.7% 2.24
Over 4.5 35.8% 2.80
Under 4.5 64.2% 1.56

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 60.7% 1.65
No 39.3% 2.55

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona / Draw 90.2% 1.11
Barcelona / Sevilla 85.5% 1.17
Draw / Sevilla 24.3% 4.11

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.3
1.6
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
1
5.4
6.2
3.0
1.0
0.3
0.1
2
8.3
8.5
4.3
1.5
0.4
0.1
3
8.1
8.2
4.2
1.4
0.4
0.1
4
5.9
6.0
3.1
1.0
0.3
0.1
5
3.4
3.5
1.8
0.6
0.2
0.0
Rows: Barcelona goals. Columns: Sevilla goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.