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Sunday 23 September 2018, 21:45 Camp Nou Full time
2–2
HT 1–1
84% 10% 5%
Home win
84.1%
Draw
10.4%
Away win
5.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona 84.1% 1.19
Draw 10.4% 9.57
Girona 5.4% 18.47

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 98.2% 1.02
Under 0.5 1.8% 54.67
Over 1.5 92.2% 1.09
Under 1.5 7.8% 12.76
Over 2.5 78.4% 1.28
Under 2.5 21.6% 4.62
Over 3.5 59.6% 1.68
Under 3.5 40.4% 2.47
Over 4.5 40.1% 2.49
Under 4.5 59.9% 1.67

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 54.4% 1.84
No 45.6% 2.19

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona / Draw 94.6% 1.06
Barcelona / Girona 89.6% 1.12
Draw / Girona 15.9% 6.31

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
1.8
1.0
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
5.0
4.6
1.8
0.5
0.1
0.0
2
8.7
7.2
3.0
0.8
0.2
0.0
3
9.7
8.0
3.3
0.9
0.2
0.0
4
8.0
6.6
2.7
0.8
0.2
0.0
5
5.4
4.4
1.8
0.5
0.1
0.0
Rows: Barcelona goals. Columns: Girona goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.