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Sunday 20 May 2018, 21:45 Camp Nou Full time
82% 11% 7%
Home win
81.5%
Draw
11.4%
Away win
7.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona 81.5% 1.23
Draw 11.4% 8.78
Real Sociedad 7.1% 14.09

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 98.5% 1.02
Under 0.5 1.5% 64.68
Over 1.5 93.4% 1.07
Under 1.5 6.6% 15.07
Over 2.5 80.9% 1.24
Under 2.5 19.1% 5.24
Over 3.5 63.2% 1.58
Under 3.5 36.8% 2.72
Over 4.5 43.9% 2.28
Under 4.5 56.1% 1.78

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 61.2% 1.63
No 38.8% 2.58

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona / Draw 92.9% 1.08
Barcelona / Real Sociedad 88.6% 1.13
Draw / Real Sociedad 18.5% 5.41

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
1.5
1.0
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
1
4.1
4.6
2.2
0.7
0.2
0.0
2
7.2
7.2
3.6
1.2
0.3
0.1
3
8.1
8.1
4.0
1.3
0.3
0.1
4
6.8
6.8
3.4
1.1
0.3
0.1
5
4.6
4.6
2.3
0.8
0.2
0.0
Rows: Barcelona goals. Columns: Real Sociedad goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.