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Sunday 2 October 2016, 16:00 Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia Full time
1–0
HT 1–0
16% 17% 66%
Home win
16.5%
Draw
17.2%
Away win
66.4%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atalanta 16.5% 6.07
Draw 17.2% 5.83
Napoli 66.4% 1.51

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 98.1% 1.02
Under 0.5 1.9% 52.11
Over 1.5 92.3% 1.08
Under 1.5 7.7% 13.00
Over 2.5 78.4% 1.27
Under 2.5 21.6% 4.64
Over 3.5 59.7% 1.67
Under 3.5 40.3% 2.48
Over 4.5 40.2% 2.48
Under 4.5 59.8% 1.67

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 70.6% 1.42
No 29.4% 3.40

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atalanta / Draw 33.6% 2.97
Atalanta / Napoli 82.8% 1.21
Draw / Napoli 83.5% 1.20

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
1.9
4.0
6.0
5.6
3.9
2.2
1
1.8
6.3
8.3
7.7
5.4
3.0
2
1.5
4.1
5.7
5.3
3.7
2.1
3
0.7
1.9
2.6
2.5
1.7
0.9
4
0.2
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.3
5
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
Rows: Atalanta goals. Columns: Napoli goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.