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Sunday 4 December 2011, 19:30 Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis Full time
20% 27% 53%
Home win
20.1%
Draw
26.7%
Away win
53.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Aris Thessalonikis 20.1% 4.98
Draw 26.7% 3.75
Panathinaikos 53.3% 1.88

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 90.7% 1.10
Under 0.5 9.3% 10.77
Over 1.5 71.1% 1.41
Under 1.5 28.9% 3.46
Over 2.5 44.5% 2.25
Under 2.5 55.5% 1.80
Over 3.5 23.3% 4.29
Under 3.5 76.7% 1.30
Over 4.5 10.3% 9.70
Under 4.5 89.7% 1.11

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 47.0% 2.13
No 53.0% 1.89

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Aris Thessalonikis / Draw 46.7% 2.14
Aris Thessalonikis / Panathinaikos 73.3% 1.36
Draw / Panathinaikos 79.9% 1.25

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.3
12.8
10.7
5.7
2.2
0.7
1
6.8
12.6
9.4
4.9
2.0
0.6
2
3.3
5.2
4.1
2.2
0.9
0.3
3
1.0
1.5
1.2
0.6
0.3
0.1
4
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
5
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Aris Thessalonikis goals. Columns: Panathinaikos goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.