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Monday 6 January 2014, 19:30 Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis Full time
56% 25% 20%
Home win
55.5%
Draw
24.7%
Away win
19.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Aris Thessalonikis 55.5% 1.80
Draw 24.7% 4.04
Apollon Smirnis 19.7% 5.07

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.8% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.2% 13.80
Over 1.5 76.2% 1.31
Under 1.5 23.8% 4.20
Over 2.5 51.2% 1.95
Under 2.5 48.8% 2.05
Over 3.5 29.1% 3.44
Under 3.5 70.9% 1.41
Over 4.5 14.0% 7.13
Under 4.5 86.0% 1.16

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 51.8% 1.93
No 48.2% 2.07

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Aris Thessalonikis / Draw 80.3% 1.25
Aris Thessalonikis / Apollon Smirnis 75.3% 1.33
Draw / Apollon Smirnis 44.5% 2.25

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.2
5.7
3.0
1.0
0.2
0.0
1
10.9
11.8
5.3
1.7
0.4
0.1
2
10.2
9.8
4.7
1.5
0.4
0.1
3
6.0
5.8
2.8
0.9
0.2
0.0
4
2.6
2.5
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
0.9
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Aris Thessalonikis goals. Columns: Apollon Smirnis goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.