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Sunday 28 October 2018, 19:00 San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza Full time
3–2
HT 2–2
52% 25% 23%
Home win
52.0%
Draw
25.4%
Away win
22.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan 52.0% 1.92
Draw 25.4% 3.93
Sampdoria 22.6% 4.42

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.9% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.1% 14.03
Over 1.5 76.6% 1.31
Under 1.5 23.4% 4.27
Over 2.5 51.7% 1.94
Under 2.5 48.3% 2.07
Over 3.5 29.5% 3.39
Under 3.5 70.5% 1.42
Over 4.5 14.3% 6.97
Under 4.5 85.7% 1.17

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 53.6% 1.86
No 46.4% 2.16

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan / Draw 77.4% 1.29
AC Milan / Sampdoria 74.6% 1.34
Draw / Sampdoria 48.0% 2.08

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.1
6.0
3.5
1.2
0.3
0.1
1
10.3
12.1
6.0
2.1
0.5
0.1
2
9.3
9.7
5.1
1.8
0.5
0.1
3
5.3
5.5
2.9
1.0
0.3
0.1
4
2.2
2.3
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
0.8
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Sampdoria goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.