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Wednesday 31 October 2018, 21:30 San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza Full time
2–1
HT 1–0
60% 24% 16%
Home win
60.0%
Draw
24.2%
Away win
15.8%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan 60.0% 1.67
Draw 24.2% 4.13
Genoa 15.8% 6.33

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.7% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.3% 12.05
Over 1.5 73.3% 1.36
Under 1.5 26.7% 3.75
Over 2.5 47.4% 2.11
Under 2.5 52.6% 1.90
Over 3.5 25.8% 3.88
Under 3.5 74.2% 1.35
Over 4.5 11.8% 8.44
Under 4.5 88.2% 1.13

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 46.2% 2.16
No 53.8% 1.86

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan / Draw 84.2% 1.19
AC Milan / Genoa 75.8% 1.32
Draw / Genoa 40.0% 2.50

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.3
5.4
2.4
0.6
0.1
0.0
1
12.9
11.5
4.3
1.1
0.2
0.0
2
12.0
9.6
3.8
1.0
0.2
0.0
3
7.1
5.7
2.3
0.6
0.1
0.0
4
3.2
2.5
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
1.1
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Genoa goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.