Friday 2 February 2018, 21:45
Orange Vélodrome
Full time
79%
14%
7%
Home win
78.8%
Draw
14.4%
Away win
6.9%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Draw | 14.4% | 6.96 | — | — |
| Metz | 6.9% | 14.55 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96.1% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 3.9% | 25.60 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 85.1% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 14.9% | 6.71 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 35.0% | 2.86 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 43.0% | 2.33 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 24.6% | 4.07 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 46.7% | 2.14 | — | — |
| No | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille / Draw | 93.1% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Marseille / Metz | 85.6% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Draw / Metz | 21.2% | 4.71 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
3.9
|
2.0
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
9.0
|
6.8
|
2.2
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
12.4
|
8.6
|
2.9
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
11.0
|
7.6
|
2.6
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
7.3
|
5.0
|
1.7
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
3.9
|
2.7
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2026
Marseille
3-1
Metz
Oct 2025
Metz
0-3
Marseille
Feb 2024
Marseille
1-1
Metz
Aug 2023
Metz
2-2
Marseille
Feb 2022
Metz
1-2
Marseille
Nov 2021
Marseille
0-0
Metz
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.