Skip to content
Thursday 27 April 2017, 22:00 Etihad Stadium Full time
43% 30% 27%
Home win
42.9%
Draw
29.6%
Away win
27.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City 42.9% 2.33
Draw 29.6% 3.38
Manchester United 27.5% 3.64

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 89.1% 1.12
Under 0.5 10.9% 9.14
Over 1.5 67.4% 1.48
Under 1.5 32.6% 3.07
Over 2.5 40.0% 2.50
Under 2.5 60.0% 1.67
Over 3.5 19.8% 5.05
Under 3.5 80.2% 1.25
Over 4.5 8.2% 12.17
Under 4.5 91.8% 1.09

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 46.4% 2.15
No 53.6% 1.87

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City / Draw 72.5% 1.38
Manchester City / Manchester United 70.4% 1.42
Draw / Manchester United 57.1% 1.75

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.9
9.2
4.9
1.6
0.4
0.1
1
12.4
13.8
6.4
2.1
0.5
0.1
2
8.6
8.5
4.2
1.4
0.3
0.1
3
3.7
3.7
1.8
0.6
0.1
0.0
4
1.2
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Manchester City goals. Columns: Manchester United goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.