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Saturday 8 April 2017, 21:00 Parc Olympique Lyonnais Full time
1–4
HT 1–1
85% 10% 5%
Home win
85.2%
Draw
9.7%
Away win
5.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lyon 85.2% 1.17
Draw 9.7% 10.33
Lorient 5.1% 19.44

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 98.5% 1.02
Under 0.5 1.5% 66.98
Over 1.5 93.4% 1.07
Under 1.5 6.6% 15.26
Over 2.5 81.1% 1.23
Under 2.5 18.9% 5.30
Over 3.5 63.5% 1.57
Under 3.5 36.5% 2.74
Over 4.5 44.3% 2.26
Under 4.5 55.7% 1.80

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 56.5% 1.77
No 43.5% 2.30

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lyon / Draw 94.9% 1.05
Lyon / Lorient 90.3% 1.11
Draw / Lorient 14.8% 6.75

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
1.5
0.9
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
4.2
4.1
1.7
0.5
0.1
0.0
2
7.8
6.7
2.9
0.8
0.2
0.0
3
9.1
7.9
3.4
1.0
0.2
0.0
4
7.9
6.9
3.0
0.9
0.2
0.0
5
5.6
4.8
2.1
0.6
0.1
0.0
Rows: Lyon goals. Columns: Lorient goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.