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Sunday 18 December 2016, 21:45 Camp Nou Full time
4–1
HT 1–0
62% 22% 16%
Home win
62.1%
Draw
22.3%
Away win
15.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona 62.1% 1.61
Draw 22.3% 4.48
Espanyol 15.6% 6.40

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.7% 1.07
Under 0.5 6.3% 15.79
Over 1.5 78.5% 1.27
Under 1.5 21.5% 4.65
Over 2.5 54.5% 1.84
Under 2.5 45.5% 2.20
Over 3.5 32.1% 3.11
Under 3.5 67.9% 1.47
Over 4.5 16.2% 6.18
Under 4.5 83.8% 1.19

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 51.3% 1.95
No 48.7% 2.05

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona / Draw 84.4% 1.19
Barcelona / Espanyol 77.7% 1.29
Draw / Espanyol 37.9% 2.64

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.3
4.5
2.3
0.7
0.1
0.0
1
10.7
10.6
4.5
1.3
0.3
0.1
2
11.1
9.9
4.4
1.3
0.3
0.1
3
7.3
6.5
2.9
0.9
0.2
0.0
4
3.6
3.2
1.4
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
1.4
1.3
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
Rows: Barcelona goals. Columns: Espanyol goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.