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Saturday 3 March 2012, 19:30 Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis Full time
40% 32% 29%
Home win
39.6%
Draw
31.8%
Away win
28.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Aris Thessalonikis 39.6% 2.52
Draw 31.8% 3.14
AEK Athens FC 28.6% 3.50

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 86.3% 1.16
Under 0.5 13.7% 7.28
Over 1.5 61.4% 1.63
Under 1.5 38.6% 2.59
Over 2.5 33.6% 2.98
Under 2.5 66.4% 1.51
Over 3.5 15.1% 6.61
Under 3.5 84.9% 1.18
Over 4.5 5.7% 17.59
Under 4.5 94.3% 1.06

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 41.4% 2.42
No 58.6% 1.71

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Aris Thessalonikis / Draw 71.4% 1.40
Aris Thessalonikis / AEK Athens FC 68.2% 1.47
Draw / AEK Athens FC 60.4% 1.66

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
13.7
11.0
5.4
1.7
0.4
0.1
1
13.8
14.2
6.1
1.9
0.4
0.1
2
8.2
7.6
3.5
1.1
0.2
0.0
3
3.1
2.8
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
4
0.9
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Aris Thessalonikis goals. Columns: AEK Athens FC goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.