Skip to content
Saturday 5 May 2018, 19:00 Stadio Georgios Kamaras (Athína (Athens)) Full time
16% 31% 53%
Home win
16.0%
Draw
30.7%
Away win
53.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Apollon Smirnis 16.0% 6.25
Draw 30.7% 3.26
AEK Athens FC 53.4% 1.87

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 83.9% 1.19
Under 0.5 16.1% 6.21
Over 1.5 56.5% 1.77
Under 1.5 43.5% 2.30
Over 2.5 28.8% 3.47
Under 2.5 71.2% 1.41
Over 3.5 12.0% 8.31
Under 3.5 88.0% 1.14
Over 4.5 4.2% 23.97
Under 4.5 95.8% 1.04

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 32.6% 3.07
No 67.4% 1.48

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Apollon Smirnis / Draw 46.6% 2.14
Apollon Smirnis / AEK Athens FC 69.3% 1.44
Draw / AEK Athens FC 84.0% 1.19

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
16.1
19.2
12.8
5.5
1.8
0.5
1
8.2
12.2
7.4
3.2
1.0
0.3
2
2.6
3.3
2.2
0.9
0.3
0.1
3
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Apollon Smirnis goals. Columns: AEK Athens FC goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.