Sunday 17 September 2017, 13:00
Estadio de Mendizorroza
Full time
28%
34%
37%
Home win
28.3%
Draw
34.2%
Away win
37.4%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 28.3% | 3.53 | — | — |
| Draw | 34.2% | 2.92 | — | — |
| Villarreal | 37.4% | 2.67 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 82.8% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 17.2% | 5.81 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 45.3% | 2.21 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 27.1% | 3.69 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 11.0% | 9.12 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 89.0% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 3.7% | 27.14 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 96.3% | 1.04 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35.9% | 2.79 | — | — |
| No | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves / Draw | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Alaves / Villarreal | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Draw / Villarreal | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
17.2
|
15.4
|
8.0
|
2.6
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
12.7
|
14.1
|
6.6
|
2.2
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
5.5
|
5.4
|
2.7
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
1.5
|
1.5
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2026
Alaves
1-1
Villarreal
Jan 2026
Villarreal
3-1
Alaves
Mar 2025
Alaves
1-0
Villarreal
Nov 2024
Villarreal
3-0
Alaves
Feb 2024
Alaves
1-1
Villarreal
Oct 2023
Villarreal
1-1
Alaves
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.