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Thursday 21 December 2017, 22:30 Estadio de Mendizorroza Full time
1–0
HT 0–0
43% 31% 27%
Home win
42.6%
Draw
30.9%
Away win
26.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Alaves 42.6% 2.35
Draw 30.9% 3.24
Malaga 26.5% 3.77

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 87.2% 1.15
Under 0.5 12.8% 7.81
Over 1.5 63.3% 1.58
Under 1.5 36.7% 2.73
Over 2.5 35.5% 2.81
Under 2.5 64.5% 1.55
Over 3.5 16.5% 6.06
Under 3.5 83.5% 1.20
Over 4.5 6.4% 15.63
Under 4.5 93.6% 1.07

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 42.6% 2.35
No 57.4% 1.74

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Alaves / Draw 73.5% 1.36
Alaves / Malaga 69.1% 1.45
Draw / Malaga 57.4% 1.74

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
12.8
10.0
4.9
1.5
0.3
0.1
1
13.8
14.0
5.9
1.8
0.4
0.1
2
8.9
8.0
3.6
1.1
0.2
0.0
3
3.6
3.3
1.5
0.4
0.1
0.0
4
1.1
1.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Alaves goals. Columns: Malaga goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.