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Saturday 16 December 2017, 21:45 Estadio Wanda Metropolitano Full time
69% 23% 8%
Home win
69.3%
Draw
22.7%
Away win
8.0%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid 69.3% 1.44
Draw 22.7% 4.40
Alaves 8.0% 12.56

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 88.0% 1.14
Under 0.5 12.0% 8.35
Over 1.5 64.2% 1.56
Under 1.5 35.8% 2.79
Over 2.5 36.8% 2.72
Under 2.5 63.2% 1.58
Over 3.5 17.4% 5.75
Under 3.5 82.6% 1.21
Over 4.5 6.9% 14.52
Under 4.5 93.1% 1.07

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 29.1% 3.43
No 70.9% 1.41

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid / Draw 92.0% 1.09
Atletico Madrid / Alaves 77.3% 1.29
Draw / Alaves 30.7% 3.26

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
12.0
4.4
1.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
19.4
9.0
1.8
0.3
0.0
0.0
2
17.3
7.4
1.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
3
10.1
4.3
0.9
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
4.4
1.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
1.5
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Alaves goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.