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Sunday 7 May 2017, 21:45 San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza Full time
1–4
HT 0–2
28% 27% 45%
Home win
27.9%
Draw
27.3%
Away win
44.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan 27.9% 3.58
Draw 27.3% 3.66
AS Roma 44.7% 2.24

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.9% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.1% 12.30
Over 1.5 74.1% 1.35
Under 1.5 25.9% 3.86
Over 2.5 48.3% 2.07
Under 2.5 51.7% 1.93
Over 3.5 26.5% 3.77
Under 3.5 73.5% 1.36
Over 4.5 12.3% 8.12
Under 4.5 87.7% 1.14

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 52.9% 1.89
No 47.1% 2.12

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan / Draw 55.3% 1.81
AC Milan / AS Roma 72.7% 1.38
Draw / AS Roma 72.1% 1.39

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.1
10.2
8.1
4.0
1.5
0.4
1
7.6
13.0
9.1
4.5
1.7
0.5
2
4.7
6.9
5.1
2.5
0.9
0.3
3
1.7
2.6
1.9
0.9
0.4
0.1
4
0.5
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: AS Roma goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.