Wednesday 26 September 2018, 21:30
Signal Iduna Park
Full time
54%
26%
20%
Home win
54.3%
Draw
25.9%
Away win
19.8%
Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Draw | 25.9% | 3.86 | — | — |
| FC Nurnberg | 19.8% | 5.06 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 91.5% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.5% | 11.74 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 27.1% | 3.70 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 46.8% | 2.13 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 25.3% | 3.96 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 11.5% | 8.67 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 88.5% | 1.13 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 48.6% | 2.06 | — | — |
| No | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund / Draw | 80.2% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Borussia Dortmund / FC Nurnberg | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Draw / FC Nurnberg | 45.7% | 2.19 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
8.5
|
6.3
|
3.2
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
12.2
|
12.3
|
5.2
|
1.6
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
10.6
|
9.6
|
4.3
|
1.3
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
5.8
|
5.3
|
2.4
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
2.4
|
2.2
|
1.0
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.8
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.