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Saturday 1 September 2018, 16:30 Max-Morlock-Stadion Full time
42% 30% 28%
Home win
42.2%
Draw
30.0%
Away win
27.8%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
FC Nurnberg 42.2% 2.37
Draw 30.0% 3.33
FSV Mainz 05 27.8% 3.60

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 88.6% 1.13
Under 0.5 11.4% 8.76
Over 1.5 66.3% 1.51
Under 1.5 33.7% 2.97
Over 2.5 38.8% 2.57
Under 2.5 61.2% 1.64
Over 3.5 18.9% 5.29
Under 3.5 81.1% 1.23
Over 4.5 7.7% 12.98
Under 4.5 92.3% 1.08

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 45.5% 2.20
No 54.5% 1.84

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
FC Nurnberg / Draw 72.2% 1.38
FC Nurnberg / FSV Mainz 05 70.0% 1.43
Draw / FSV Mainz 05 57.8% 1.73

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.4
9.6
5.1
1.6
0.4
0.1
1
12.7
13.9
6.4
2.1
0.5
0.1
2
8.5
8.3
4.1
1.3
0.3
0.1
3
3.6
3.5
1.7
0.6
0.1
0.0
4
1.1
1.1
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: FC Nurnberg goals. Columns: FSV Mainz 05 goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.