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Saturday 1 October 2016, 16:30 Allianz Arena Full time
Bayern München
1–1
HT 1–0
1. FC Köln
42% 31% 27%
Home win
41.8%
Draw
31.3%
Away win
26.9%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Bayern München 41.8% 2.39 — —
Draw 31.3% 3.20 — —
1. FC Köln 26.9% 3.71 — —

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 86.8% 1.15 — —
Under 0.5 13.2% 7.55 — —
Over 1.5 62.4% 1.60 — —
Under 1.5 37.6% 2.66 — —
Over 2.5 34.6% 2.89 — —
Under 2.5 65.4% 1.53 — —
Over 3.5 15.8% 6.32 — —
Under 3.5 84.2% 1.19 — —
Over 4.5 6.1% 16.52 — —
Under 4.5 93.9% 1.06 — —

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 41.9% 2.38 — —
No 58.1% 1.72 — —

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Bayern München / Draw 73.1% 1.37 — —
Bayern München / 1. FC Köln 68.7% 1.45 — —
Draw / 1. FC Köln 58.2% 1.72 — —

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
13.2
10.4
5.0
1.5
0.3
0.1
1
14.0
14.0
5.9
1.8
0.4
0.1
2
8.8
7.9
3.5
1.1
0.2
0.0
3
3.5
3.1
1.4
0.4
0.1
0.0
4
1.0
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Bayern München goals. Columns: 1. FC Köln goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Bayern München
W W W W W
1. FC Köln
W D W W D

Head to head

May 2026 Bayern München 5-1 1. FC Köln Jan 2026 1. FC Köln 1-3 Bayern München Apr 2024 Bayern München 2-0 1. FC Köln Nov 2023 1. FC Köln 0-1 Bayern München May 2023 1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayern München Jan 2023 Bayern München 1-1 1. FC Köln

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.