Skip to content
Σ SigmaGoal
ΕΛ EN
Sign in
Saturday 1 October 2016, 19:30 BayArena Full time
Bayer Leverkusen
2–0
HT 1–0
Borussia Dortmund
18% 19% 63%
Home win
17.7%
Draw
19.2%
Away win
63.1%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Bayer Leverkusen 17.7% 5.65 — —
Draw 19.2% 5.20 — —
Borussia Dortmund 63.1% 1.59 — —

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 97.1% 1.03 — —
Under 0.5 2.9% 34.01 — —
Over 1.5 88.8% 1.13 — —
Under 1.5 11.2% 8.92 — —
Over 2.5 71.4% 1.40 — —
Under 2.5 28.6% 3.49 — —
Over 3.5 50.5% 1.98 — —
Under 3.5 49.5% 2.02 — —
Over 4.5 31.2% 3.21 — —
Under 4.5 68.8% 1.45 — —

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 65.7% 1.52 — —
No 34.3% 2.91 — —

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Bayer Leverkusen / Draw 36.9% 2.71 — —
Bayer Leverkusen / Borussia Dortmund 80.8% 1.24 — —
Draw / Borussia Dortmund 82.3% 1.22 — —

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.9
5.6
7.4
6.0
3.7
1.8
1
2.7
8.1
9.3
7.6
4.6
2.3
2
1.9
4.8
5.8
4.7
2.9
1.4
3
0.8
2.0
2.4
2.0
1.2
0.6
4
0.3
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
5
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
Rows: Bayer Leverkusen goals. Columns: Borussia Dortmund goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Bayer Leverkusen
L W L D W
Borussia Dortmund
W L W W W

Head to head

Apr 2026 Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen Nov 2025 Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund May 2025 Bayer Leverkusen 2-4 Borussia Dortmund Jan 2025 Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Bayer Leverkusen Apr 2024 Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen Dec 2023 Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Borussia Dortmund

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.