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Saturday 24 September 2016, 16:30 Opel Arena Full time
FSV Mainz 05
2–3
HT 2–1
Bayer Leverkusen
77% 15% 7%
Home win
77.4%
Draw
15.3%
Away win
7.3%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
FSV Mainz 05 77.4% 1.29 — —
Draw 15.3% 6.52 — —
Bayer Leverkusen 7.3% 13.79 — —

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.5% 1.05 — —
Under 0.5 4.5% 22.12 — —
Over 1.5 83.2% 1.20 — —
Under 1.5 16.8% 5.95 — —
Over 2.5 61.9% 1.62 — —
Under 2.5 38.1% 2.62 — —
Over 3.5 39.6% 2.53 — —
Under 3.5 60.4% 1.66 — —
Over 4.5 21.8% 4.59 — —
Under 4.5 78.2% 1.28 — —

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 45.1% 2.22 — —
No 54.9% 1.82 — —

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
FSV Mainz 05 / Draw 92.7% 1.08 — —
FSV Mainz 05 / Bayer Leverkusen 84.7% 1.18 — —
Draw / Bayer Leverkusen 22.6% 4.42 — —

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.5
2.3
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
10.0
7.3
2.3
0.5
0.1
0.0
2
13.1
8.7
2.9
0.6
0.1
0.0
3
11.0
7.4
2.4
0.5
0.1
0.0
4
7.0
4.6
1.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
3.5
2.3
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
Rows: FSV Mainz 05 goals. Columns: Bayer Leverkusen goals. Values are percentages.

Form

FSV Mainz 05
L D W W
Bayer Leverkusen
L W L D

Head to head

Feb 2026 Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 Oct 2025 FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen May 2025 FSV Mainz 05 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen Jan 2025 Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 FSV Mainz 05 Feb 2024 Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 FSV Mainz 05 Sep 2023 FSV Mainz 05 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.