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Sunday 11 September 2016, 18:30 Opel Arena Full time
FSV Mainz 05
4–4
HT 4–1
1899 Hoffenheim
92% 6% 2%
Home win
92.0%
Draw
6.3%
Away win
1.7%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
FSV Mainz 05 92.0% 1.09 — —
Draw 6.3% 15.76 — —
1899 Hoffenheim 1.7% 59.81 — —

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 97.9% 1.02 — —
Under 0.5 2.1% 46.84 — —
Over 1.5 90.5% 1.11 — —
Under 1.5 9.5% 10.51 — —
Over 2.5 75.1% 1.33 — —
Under 2.5 24.9% 4.02 — —
Over 3.5 55.2% 1.81 — —
Under 3.5 44.8% 2.23 — —
Over 4.5 35.7% 2.80 — —
Under 4.5 64.3% 1.56 — —

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 32.8% 3.05 — —
No 67.2% 1.49 — —

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
FSV Mainz 05 / Draw 98.3% 1.02 — —
FSV Mainz 05 / 1899 Hoffenheim 93.7% 1.07 — —
Draw / 1899 Hoffenheim 8.0% 12.47 — —

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.1
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
1
6.7
3.0
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
2
12.2
5.0
1.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
3
14.3
5.9
1.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
4
12.6
5.2
1.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
8.9
3.6
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: FSV Mainz 05 goals. Columns: 1899 Hoffenheim goals. Values are percentages.

Form

FSV Mainz 05
L
1899 Hoffenheim
D

Head to head

Apr 2026 1899 Hoffenheim 1-2 FSV Mainz 05 Nov 2025 FSV Mainz 05 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim Apr 2025 1899 Hoffenheim 2-0 FSV Mainz 05 Dec 2024 FSV Mainz 05 2-0 1899 Hoffenheim Apr 2024 FSV Mainz 05 4-1 1899 Hoffenheim Nov 2023 1899 Hoffenheim 1-1 FSV Mainz 05

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.