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Saturday 22 September 2018, 14:00 Estadio de Vallecas Full time
Rayo Vallecano
1–5
HT 1–2
Alaves
34% 32% 34%
Home win
33.9%
Draw
32.1%
Away win
34.0%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Rayo Vallecano 33.9% 2.95 — —
Draw 32.1% 3.11 — —
Alaves 34.0% 2.95 — —

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 86.1% 1.16 — —
Under 0.5 13.9% 7.22 — —
Over 1.5 61.2% 1.63 — —
Under 1.5 38.8% 2.58 — —
Over 2.5 33.3% 3.00 — —
Under 2.5 66.7% 1.50 — —
Over 3.5 15.0% 6.69 — —
Under 3.5 85.0% 1.18 — —
Over 4.5 5.6% 17.84 — —
Under 4.5 94.4% 1.06 — —

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 41.6% 2.40 — —
No 58.4% 1.71 — —

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Rayo Vallecano / Draw 66.0% 1.51 — —
Rayo Vallecano / Alaves 67.9% 1.47 — —
Draw / Alaves 66.1% 1.51 — —

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
13.9
12.5
6.8
2.3
0.6
0.1
1
12.5
14.3
6.9
2.3
0.6
0.1
2
6.8
6.9
3.5
1.2
0.3
0.1
3
2.3
2.3
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
4
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Rayo Vallecano goals. Columns: Alaves goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Rayo Vallecano
L L W
Alaves
L L D W W

Head to head

Aug 2026 Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Alaves May 2026 Alaves 1-2 Rayo Vallecano Oct 2025 Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Alaves Mar 2025 Alaves 0-2 Rayo Vallecano Oct 2024 Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Alaves Mar 2024 Alaves 1-0 Rayo Vallecano

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.