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Sunday 30 April 2017, 16:00 Carlo Castellani Full time
1–3
HT 1–2
28% 31% 41%
Home win
28.4%
Draw
30.7%
Away win
40.9%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Empoli 28.4% 3.53
Draw 30.7% 3.25
Sassuolo 40.9% 2.44

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 87.7% 1.14
Under 0.5 12.3% 8.12
Over 1.5 64.4% 1.55
Under 1.5 35.6% 2.81
Over 2.5 36.7% 2.73
Under 2.5 63.3% 1.58
Over 3.5 17.3% 5.78
Under 3.5 82.7% 1.21
Over 4.5 6.8% 14.64
Under 4.5 93.2% 1.07

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 43.9% 2.28
No 56.1% 1.78

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Empoli / Draw 59.1% 1.69
Empoli / Sassuolo 69.3% 1.44
Draw / Sassuolo 71.6% 1.40

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
12.3
13.1
8.4
3.4
1.0
0.2
1
10.2
14.1
8.0
3.2
1.0
0.2
2
5.3
6.3
3.8
1.5
0.5
0.1
3
1.7
2.0
1.2
0.5
0.1
0.0
4
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Empoli goals. Columns: Sassuolo goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.