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Saturday 29 April 2017, 16:30 Signal Iduna Park Full time
66% 19% 15%
Home win
66.2%
Draw
19.2%
Away win
14.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Borussia Dortmund 66.2% 1.51
Draw 19.2% 5.20
1. FC Köln 14.6% 6.87

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.1% 1.04
Under 0.5 3.9% 25.34
Over 1.5 85.4% 1.17
Under 1.5 14.6% 6.87
Over 2.5 65.4% 1.53
Under 2.5 34.6% 2.89
Over 3.5 43.4% 2.30
Under 3.5 56.6% 1.77
Over 4.5 25.0% 4.00
Under 4.5 75.0% 1.33

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 58.5% 1.71
No 41.5% 2.41

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Borussia Dortmund / Draw 85.4% 1.17
Borussia Dortmund / 1. FC Köln 80.8% 1.24
Draw / 1. FC Köln 33.8% 2.96

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.9
3.0
1.8
0.6
0.2
0.0
1
7.6
8.8
4.2
1.5
0.4
0.1
2
9.5
9.7
5.0
1.7
0.4
0.1
3
7.4
7.6
3.9
1.3
0.3
0.1
4
4.3
4.4
2.3
0.8
0.2
0.0
5
2.0
2.1
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
Rows: Borussia Dortmund goals. Columns: 1. FC Köln goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.