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Sunday 5 May 2019, 18:30 Emirates Stadium Full time
1–1
HT 1–0
72% 18% 10%
Home win
71.9%
Draw
18.0%
Away win
10.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal 71.9% 1.39
Draw 18.0% 5.57
Brighton 10.2% 9.82

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.1% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.9% 20.26
Over 1.5 82.2% 1.22
Under 1.5 17.8% 5.61
Over 2.5 60.1% 1.66
Under 2.5 39.9% 2.51
Over 3.5 37.8% 2.65
Under 3.5 62.2% 1.61
Over 4.5 20.4% 4.91
Under 4.5 79.6% 1.26

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 49.2% 2.03
No 50.8% 1.97

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal / Draw 89.8% 1.11
Arsenal / Brighton 82.0% 1.22
Draw / Brighton 28.1% 3.55

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.9
3.0
1.3
0.3
0.1
0.0
1
9.9
8.5
3.1
0.8
0.2
0.0
2
12.2
9.4
3.6
0.9
0.2
0.0
3
9.5
7.3
2.8
0.7
0.1
0.0
4
5.5
4.3
1.7
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
2.6
2.0
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Brighton goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.