Saturday 18 January 2020, 17:00
The American Express Community Stadium
Full time
43%
27%
30%
Home win
43.1%
Draw
27.1%
Away win
29.8%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 43.1% | 2.32 | — | — |
| Draw | 27.1% | 3.68 | — | — |
| Aston Villa | 29.8% | 3.36 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 92.3% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 7.7% | 13.04 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 24.7% | 4.05 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 49.9% | 2.01 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 27.9% | 3.58 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 13.2% | 7.55 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 86.8% | 1.15 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
| No | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton / Draw | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Brighton / Aston Villa | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Draw / Aston Villa | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
7.7
|
7.5
|
4.9
|
2.0
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
9.5
|
12.9
|
7.3
|
2.9
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
| 2 |
7.6
|
9.0
|
5.4
|
2.1
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
| 3 |
3.7
|
4.4
|
2.6
|
1.0
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
1.4
|
1.6
|
1.0
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.4
|
0.5
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2026
Aston Villa
1-0
Brighton
Dec 2025
Brighton
3-4
Aston Villa
Apr 2025
Brighton
0-3
Aston Villa
Dec 2024
Aston Villa
2-2
Brighton
May 2024
Brighton
1-0
Aston Villa
Sep 2023
Aston Villa
6-1
Brighton
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.