Skip to content

Results

La Liga · What happened, and what the model said would happen.

Backtested These matches were played before this site existed, so the model did not publish a forecast at the time. Each one is priced from a fit over matches played strictly before its own kickoff — never the match itself, never anything after it. That is an honest test, but it is not the same as a prediction made in advance, and it is not counted in the live record.

Matches priced
41
RPS
0.1985
baseline 0.1224
Correct calls
58.5%
baseline 57.1%
Log loss
1.1843
baseline 0.6829
Date Home Score Away Model said On the result RPS
20 Aug 26 Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Alaves
33% 33% 33%
33.3% 0.111
19 Aug 26 Atletico Madrid 2–0 Malaga
33% 33% 33%
33.3% 0.278
17 Aug 26 Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 Elche
33% 33% 33%
33.3% 0.111
16 Aug 26 Espanyol 3–0 Levante
33% 33% 33%
33.3% 0.278
16 Aug 26 Racing Santander 2–2 Villarreal
33% 33% 33%
33.4% 0.111
15 Aug 26 Sevilla 2–1 Rayo Vallecano
33% 33% 33%
33.4% 0.277
15 Aug 26 Alaves 3–0 Getafe
33% 33% 33%
33.3% 0.278

No matches match those filters.

RPS scores a single match: 0 is a perfect call, 1 is being certain of the opposite. Around 0.2 on average is the level a bookmaker operates at.